Thursday, September 23, 2004
Sports: NFL Week Three
I got clobbered last week. One-and-freaking-nine against the spread. I fared slightly better straight up. This week I expect to bounce back, though the schedule doesn't look all that favorable.
In case you're curious, I haven't actually bet any of these games. Because the wagers I do make are through a friend's (gasp!) bookie, and I've been out of town the past two Sundays, I've been waiting for a weekend in town to bet. It's not as much fun when you're not camped out at a sports bar with all of your games on TV.
I did make it out to a local spot to catch Monday Night Football. My proxy bookie won $930 on Sunday and planned to let most of it ride with the Vikings-Eagles game. Another friend of ours threw in $250 and just for kicks, I tossed in a ten-spot, so in all the three of us had a grand spread out across three bets: (1) $250 on Minnesota to cover, (2) $250 teaser parlay on Minnesota and the over, (3) $500 on the over. We missed all three, because the Vikes failed to put the ball in the end zone on two trips to the one.
Gambling the NFL is tough.
Last week:
SU: 4-6
ATS: 1-9
[1-1] Pittsburgh at [0-2] Miami (-1): Rookie Ben Roethlisberger gets the start for the Steelers and he'll likely be the best QB on the field. He'll face two banged-up Miami CBs, and the Phins still have no semblance of a running game. Steelers 20, Dolphins 13
ATS- Pittsburgh
[1-1] Cleveland at [1-1] NY Giants (-3): The Browns are about one more injury away from fielding an XFL squad. Jeff Garcia proved to be the anti-Daunte Culpepper against Dallas last week, and now he's lost his TE (Kellen Winslow) and their best OL (Ryan Tucker). Turnovers decide this one, and I like NY's defense a little bit more. Giants 16, Browns 10
ATS- NY Giants
[1-1] Baltiomore (-3) at [1-1] Cincinnatti: B-more's best target (TE Todd Heap) won't play, and QB Kyle Boller isn't that good anyway. Carson Palmer, however, might just be after all. I'll take the best back, and that's clearly Jamal Lewis. Ravens 14, Bengals 13
ATS- Cincinnatti
[0-2] Houston at [0-2] Kansas City (-7.5): Who expected either of these teams to be 0-2, much less both of them? If Priest Holmes' tender ankle holds up -- or if Domanick Davis continues to put the ball on the turf -- then the Chiefs pull this one out. I figure at least one of the two will prove true. That's a big spread, though, for such a porous defense. Chiefs 24, Texans 20
ATS-Texans
[1-1] New Orleans at [1-1] St. Louis (-7): The Saints fans that laughed at Miami when Ricky Williams retired probably don't think it's so funny anymore. Deuce McCallister is out for a while, and Aaron Brooks isn't going to beat the rams all by himself. Rams 30, Saints 20
ATS- St. Louis
[1-1] Chicago at [1-1] Minnesota (-9): That's a big spread and the Vikings made me look bad last game. Come to think of it, so did the Bears. Does lighting strike twice? Nope. But Randy Moss is as quick as lightning, and he's going to strike a lot more than twice on Sunday. Vikings 34, Bears 14
ATS- Minnesota
[2-0] Philadelphia (-4.5) at [2-0] Detroit: I love Roy Williams. But he can't throw the ball to himself, and I don't have a lot of confidence in Joey Harrington's poise amidst the Eagles' pass rush. Kevin Jones will have to put up a monster game for Detroit to upset. Eagles 26, Lions 17
ATS- Philadelphia
[1-1] Green Bay at [1-1] Indianapolis (-6): Last week the Colts looked like the team I picked to win it all. Ahman Green and the Edge present an intriguing RB battle, but will James play? I don't think it matters. Colts 24, Packers 17.
ATS- Indianapolis
[0-2] Tampa Bay at [1-1] Oakland (-3.5): Jon Gruden benched Brad Johnson last week, but plans to start him against the Raiders.It wasn't an abberation, Jon. Johnson really is that bad. Based on general principle (and a resurgent Rich Gannon) I'm going with Oakland. Raiders 23, Bucs 13
ATS- Oakland
[1-1] Dallas at [1-1] Washington (-2): The Skins destroyed Dallas, 42-0, when I played this game in Madden 2005. Vinny T looks much better in the real world, fortunately, than in the Madden universe. If the O-Line can keep LaVar Arrington from camping out in the Cowboys' backfield, then Dallas has a chance to win. Good luck. Redskins 17, Cowboys 16
ATS- Dallas
Season totals:
10-10 SU
8-12 ATS
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In case you're curious, I haven't actually bet any of these games. Because the wagers I do make are through a friend's (gasp!) bookie, and I've been out of town the past two Sundays, I've been waiting for a weekend in town to bet. It's not as much fun when you're not camped out at a sports bar with all of your games on TV.
I did make it out to a local spot to catch Monday Night Football. My proxy bookie won $930 on Sunday and planned to let most of it ride with the Vikings-Eagles game. Another friend of ours threw in $250 and just for kicks, I tossed in a ten-spot, so in all the three of us had a grand spread out across three bets: (1) $250 on Minnesota to cover, (2) $250 teaser parlay on Minnesota and the over, (3) $500 on the over. We missed all three, because the Vikes failed to put the ball in the end zone on two trips to the one.
Gambling the NFL is tough.
Last week:
SU: 4-6
ATS: 1-9
[1-1] Pittsburgh at [0-2] Miami (-1): Rookie Ben Roethlisberger gets the start for the Steelers and he'll likely be the best QB on the field. He'll face two banged-up Miami CBs, and the Phins still have no semblance of a running game. Steelers 20, Dolphins 13
ATS- Pittsburgh
[1-1] Cleveland at [1-1] NY Giants (-3): The Browns are about one more injury away from fielding an XFL squad. Jeff Garcia proved to be the anti-Daunte Culpepper against Dallas last week, and now he's lost his TE (Kellen Winslow) and their best OL (Ryan Tucker). Turnovers decide this one, and I like NY's defense a little bit more. Giants 16, Browns 10
ATS- NY Giants
[1-1] Baltiomore (-3) at [1-1] Cincinnatti: B-more's best target (TE Todd Heap) won't play, and QB Kyle Boller isn't that good anyway. Carson Palmer, however, might just be after all. I'll take the best back, and that's clearly Jamal Lewis. Ravens 14, Bengals 13
ATS- Cincinnatti
[0-2] Houston at [0-2] Kansas City (-7.5): Who expected either of these teams to be 0-2, much less both of them? If Priest Holmes' tender ankle holds up -- or if Domanick Davis continues to put the ball on the turf -- then the Chiefs pull this one out. I figure at least one of the two will prove true. That's a big spread, though, for such a porous defense. Chiefs 24, Texans 20
ATS-Texans
[1-1] New Orleans at [1-1] St. Louis (-7): The Saints fans that laughed at Miami when Ricky Williams retired probably don't think it's so funny anymore. Deuce McCallister is out for a while, and Aaron Brooks isn't going to beat the rams all by himself. Rams 30, Saints 20
ATS- St. Louis
[1-1] Chicago at [1-1] Minnesota (-9): That's a big spread and the Vikings made me look bad last game. Come to think of it, so did the Bears. Does lighting strike twice? Nope. But Randy Moss is as quick as lightning, and he's going to strike a lot more than twice on Sunday. Vikings 34, Bears 14
ATS- Minnesota
[2-0] Philadelphia (-4.5) at [2-0] Detroit: I love Roy Williams. But he can't throw the ball to himself, and I don't have a lot of confidence in Joey Harrington's poise amidst the Eagles' pass rush. Kevin Jones will have to put up a monster game for Detroit to upset. Eagles 26, Lions 17
ATS- Philadelphia
[1-1] Green Bay at [1-1] Indianapolis (-6): Last week the Colts looked like the team I picked to win it all. Ahman Green and the Edge present an intriguing RB battle, but will James play? I don't think it matters. Colts 24, Packers 17.
ATS- Indianapolis
[0-2] Tampa Bay at [1-1] Oakland (-3.5): Jon Gruden benched Brad Johnson last week, but plans to start him against the Raiders.It wasn't an abberation, Jon. Johnson really is that bad. Based on general principle (and a resurgent Rich Gannon) I'm going with Oakland. Raiders 23, Bucs 13
ATS- Oakland
[1-1] Dallas at [1-1] Washington (-2): The Skins destroyed Dallas, 42-0, when I played this game in Madden 2005. Vinny T looks much better in the real world, fortunately, than in the Madden universe. If the O-Line can keep LaVar Arrington from camping out in the Cowboys' backfield, then Dallas has a chance to win. Good luck. Redskins 17, Cowboys 16
ATS- Dallas
Season totals:
10-10 SU
8-12 ATS
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