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Monday, November 01, 2004

Politics: More Predicitons 

My crystal ball tells me that the GOP will pick up one seat in the Senate, bringing their advantage to 52-47-1. A best-case scenario could see the Republicans picking up as many as four or even five seats, but that's probably just wishful thinking. It's unlikely, in my opinion, that the Democrats will do any better than maintaining the status quo.

I expect the competitive races to play out as follows:

GOP Hold (1)- Tom Coburn (OK) wins Rep. Don Nickles' seat over Brad Carson

GOP Gain (4)- David Vitter (LA) win's Dem. John Breaux's seat over multiple Democratic opponents; John Thune (SD) defeats incumbent Tom Daschle; Johnny Isakson (GA) win's Dem. Zell Miller's seat over Denise Majette; Jim DeMint (SC) wins Dem. Fritz Hollings' seat over Inez Tennenbaum

No Gain/Loss (2)- Mel Martinez (FL) loses bid for Dem. Bob Graham's seat to Betty Castor; Richard Burr (NC) loses bid for Dem. John Edwards' seat to Erskine Bowles

GOP Lose (3)- Pete Coors (CO) loses bid for Rep. Ben Nighthorse Campbell's seat to Ken Salazar; incumbent Lisa Murkowski (AK) loses to Tom Knowles; Alan Keyes (IL) loses Rep. Peter Fitzgerald's seat to Barack Obama;

The other 24 races are such in name only. Barring any huge last-day miracles, none of the 24 should see the incumbent lose.

A mere handful of the 435 House races are competitive, most of which are in Texas, due to the GOP's cunning gerrymandering of the Congressional districts. Republicans currently have a 228-205-1 majority, and I think that they probably pick up about six seats there.

A few post-Election Day wildcards remain, but I'll get into them at a later date.


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