Friday, August 27, 2004
Politics: Bush Edging Ahead?
Scott Elliot links to a new LA Times poll that shows President Bush with a slight lead on John Kerry. As he points out, "one poll does not a trend make," but it's good news still. Ten again, maybe it is a trend. Gallup also shows the President with a slim lead.
With the Republican Convention coming up next week, I can't imagine a better scenario for the GOP. Sure, you'd like to see a comfortable lead already, but it's not necessary. A lead of any kind means that the Bush camp can now hope for a convention bounce that does more than just catch them up. Now they can possibly open up a lead that exceeds the margin of error, meaning that a few of those battleground states could move from the "toss-up" category to the "lean Bush" one.
ADDED: For what it's worth, Gerry Daly shows President Bush leading 260-259 with Oregon and Colorado the only two states "too close to call." He has Florida, Missouri and Ohio all in the Red (though his site actually colors the Dems Red and the GOP Blue), but acknowledges that the three polls used in those states sampled registered, as opposed to likely, voters.
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With the Republican Convention coming up next week, I can't imagine a better scenario for the GOP. Sure, you'd like to see a comfortable lead already, but it's not necessary. A lead of any kind means that the Bush camp can now hope for a convention bounce that does more than just catch them up. Now they can possibly open up a lead that exceeds the margin of error, meaning that a few of those battleground states could move from the "toss-up" category to the "lean Bush" one.
ADDED: For what it's worth, Gerry Daly shows President Bush leading 260-259 with Oregon and Colorado the only two states "too close to call." He has Florida, Missouri and Ohio all in the Red (though his site actually colors the Dems Red and the GOP Blue), but acknowledges that the three polls used in those states sampled registered, as opposed to likely, voters.
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