b The Longhorn Mafia <$BlogRSDURL$>

Monday, August 30, 2004

Politics: Bush Bouncing 

I was listening to Sean Hannity on my drive from Salado back to Austin this afternoon, and he had Dick Morris on to discuss the bounce that President Bush stands to gain from this week's convention.

Morris contends that Bush will come out of this week with as much as an eight- to ten-point lead. He believes that that margin might shrink back to five or six points heading into the debate, but that the President will stretch it to a few points more as the two candidates hit the last few weeks before the Nov. 2 election.

Newsweek's Howard Fineman doesn't see the lead growing quite that large -- not yet at least. During a Hardball panel discussion, Fineman said that the President will likely gain five points from the convention.

No matter the exact number, one thing seems pretty clear: John Kerry is in trouble. The President has overcome the deficit of the past few months in almost every major poll, and he's moved ahead in several of them. With the push he'll get this week -- five points, eight points, however many he gets -- George Bush has solidified his standing, and even though a lot can change in two months, he's clearly going to be ahead as the true general campaign begins.


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