b The Longhorn Mafia <$BlogRSDURL$>

Thursday, June 17, 2004

Electoral College Watch 

I haven't looked at this in a while, but here are the latest projections from the three sites that I've been watching over the past six months. Remember that each site has different methods for determining their projections, as well as what constitutes a "toss-up."

Scott Elliot: Kerry 210, Bush 159(toss-ups: 16 states; 169 EV)

Federal Review: Kerry 227, Bush 222 (toss-ups: 7 states; 89 EV)

Gerry Dale: Bush 249, Kerry 221 (toss-ups: 6 states; 68 EV)

As you can see, this can easily go either way. Terry Neal, WaPo's Chief Political Correspondent says just that in his latest mailbag:

You all might find this interesting. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, has done a state-by-state analysis and concluded that if the election were held today, Kerry would win the Electoral College by 274 to Bush's 264.
But he cautions:
"1. This is CLOSE. Anyone who believes that the election could not go either way is too partisan to be helped.
"2. A June map is NOT predictive of the November results. The world will turn over several times between now and Election Day (137 times, to be exact).
"3. While the electoral total is a squeaker today, we caution that the November results may not be nearly as tight. This election could break clearly in one direction come fall, or even (as in 1980) during the last week of the campaign because of late-unfolding events..."
Neal also says that, despite some people's insistence upon Bush changing his running mate, the President fully intends to keep VP Cheney on the 2004 ticket. I'd personally love to see a Condi Rice or JC Watts ride shotgun with President Bush. Maybe we'll see one of the two -- or maybe even both -- wage their own Presidential bids in the future.



# posted by Drew : 6/17/2004 01:15:00 PM
|

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?